Policy → Capability takes a policy intervention — a tariff, subsidy, local-content rule or procurement preference — and asks three things: what was the protection supposed to buy, what was the industry supposed to build with that time, and did it actually happen. Every verdict is assembled from ten diagnostic tests, each backed by a traceable evidence trail.
The specific assertion under test.
Where the underlying data comes from.
The measured value or document text.
What the evidence means for the test.
How strongly the data supports the claim.
The status the test records — and why.
Every claim the monitor makes — down to "US manufacturers have not materially shortened EV product cycles" — can be opened to its historical baseline, current reading, named programmes, dates and source documents. The product is not the score; it is the audit trail behind it.
Is the protected industry's unit cost converging on the global price floor?
Are development timelines compressing the way competitive industries' do?
Is the supply chain actually localizing, layer by layer, not just assembly?
Is protection buying products ordinary buyers can afford?
Is physical capacity expanding on the schedule that was promised?
Is capital going into process redesign, not just more capacity?
Can the industry sell outside the protected market? The strongest adaptation signal.
Does the protection itself carry conditions that can be enforced?
Is there a scheduled end, review, or sunset tied to capability outcomes?
Has the rate of technical accumulation actually changed since the intervention?
Costs fall, productivity rises, capacity is built, affordable products appear, exports recover, technology accelerates, and protection declines.
Protection holds, capability indicators stall. Quarterly results improve; the construction schedule slips.
Protection rises while capability deteriorates. The industry needs the policy more, not less, each year.
The framework is not anti-tariff. If domestic costs fall, productivity rises, factories are built, affordable products appear, exports recover and protection declines, the system says so. "This protection appears to be working" is a legitimate verdict.
The delta between protected market price and the global price floor. A successful policy should show protection falling while capability rises. Protection up and capability down is dependency; both flat is stagnation; protection down and capability up is the exit condition.
How quickly an industry converts protection into measurable capability. The intervention sets the baseline, the construction schedule defines the expected trajectory year by year, and each test is scored against that schedule — no forecasting, only measurement against commitments.
Ten tests instrumented with live evidence trails and an 82% confidence verdict.