Vertical EV-01 of 12 · Active Intervention Verdict

Protection without sufficient evidence of adaptation

Instrument
100% tariff, Chinese EVs
Start
May 2024
Protected
Ford / GM / Stellantis
Exit
Undefined
Confidence Score
82%

The 10 Diagnostic Tests

Metric Baseline: 2024 Q1

Show Me The Construction Schedule

Compare regimes →
2024
Baseline set
2025
Battery capacity +X
2026
Unit cost −Y
2027
Product cycle −Z
2028
Affordable model launch
2029
Export share +A

Protection Dependency

DANGER: UPTREND
'29 (PROJ)

Tracks the delta between protected market price and the global price floor. Dependency is scaling in inverse proportion to cost reduction.

Adaptation Rate

STAGNATION DETECTED

Measures conversion of policy protection into measurable capability. The last 18 months show saturation of existing technology without product-cycle compression.